The memory wall

Every strategy this desk has run, including the ones that died.

Odin keeps two ravens: Hugin for thought, Munin for memory. The sagas have him fear more for Munin. This is the memory — one line per book, opened and closed, with the number that closed it. Four of the five are dead.

Directional · Cohort I
Closed
Local run Result indistinguishable from noise Reason: no measurable edge
Directional · Cohort II
Closed
Production run −$33.60 net once the artifact was removed Reason: the +1.2% headline was a daemon outage
Directional · Cohort III
Closed
Opened 2026-07-02 · closed 2026-07-08 −2.31% NAV 40% win rate against the 57.4% it needed Reason: structurally negative payoff
Binance cash-and-carry
Closed
Never funded Reason: the spread does not clear the fees, structurally
Hyperliquid funding carry
Running · paper
Short perp, long spot, delta-neutral 6.4–7.7% net APR over 60 days Kill rule: funding floor under 7bps for 7 days
The Munin margin

What the desk believed at open, against what happened.

Believed at open
  • Fusing social, Telegram and on-chain signals finds real setups
  • A 1–10 conviction score separates good entries from bad
  • Tight ROI targets bank winners early and protect the book
  • The losses are fees and slippage; net them out and the edge appears
  • One cohort printed +1.2%, so the approach works and needs tuning
What happened
  • No positive slice at n≥5 — by side, source, ticker or hour of entry
  • Conviction measured anti-predictive in all three cohorts
  • The ladder cut winners at +0.7–1% while stops released losers at 3–6.4%
  • A zero-fee, zero-slippage replay still lost about $150
  • That +1.2% was two positions held 131.6 hours through an outage, into an SOL rally

The book stays closed absent new structural evidence. A parameter set that backtests better does not count as evidence — that is the mistake the +1.2% headline came from.

Still running

One book survived, and it needs no directional view.

Short the Hyperliquid perpetual, hold the spot leg, collect the funding difference. Delta-neutral, so the part that failed — predicting direction — is not involved.

7.7% NEAR · net APR
7.3% HYPE · net APR
6.4% LDO · net APR
Last measured 2026-07-08 · 60-day window · rendered worn because that is how old it is

Cost basis: taker fees on all four legs. No bid-ask crossing and no market impact are modelled, so read these as an upper bound — a conservative half-spread across four legs is worth roughly another 1.5 points of APR. Paper positions on a single operator's own account, never real capital. Single-digit APR on a delta-neutral carry is a boring, believable number, and anyone quoting three digits is selling something.

How the desk works

Build it, measure it, close it when it does not pay.

The pipeline runs and the ingestion works. What it produced is what closed the book.

01

Ingest

Public Crypto Twitter, Telegram channels and on-chain flows land in one stream. This part still runs.

02

Cluster

Related mentions are grouped and de-duplicated, sources weighted, each cluster scored with its sources kept. The score measured anti-predictive, so it gates nothing now.

03

Paper-test

Everything trades on paper against live prices, with taker fees and slippage modelled. No real capital, ever.

04

Judge

A cohort clears its breakeven win rate or it closes. Three did not. A fourth result that looked good turned out to be an outage, and was thrown out too.

Access

There is nothing to buy.

One person's research project. No plans, no accounts, no checkout — the pricing page that used to sit here described a purchase path that was never built.

The dashboard

The desk interface, published as a demo build. Every figure in it is synthetic sample data, behind a permanent banner saying so. No account, no live market data, no positions behind it.

Open the demo

The write-ups

How the directional book was measured and why it closed, and how the funding-carry forward-test is run. Including the results that did not work.

Read the write-ups

No capital is managed for anyone and no real capital has ever been deployed. Every strategy described here was traded on paper. Nothing on this site is financial advice.